A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
